The race for John Cornyn's seat in the US Senate this year looks to be the best chance that Democrats have had to take a Senate seat in this state for years: the Republicans are saddled with a deeply unpopular war, an even more unpopular lame-duck president, a weak incumbent, and an economy teetering on the brink of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Meanwhile, Democrats look to have two strong candidates on the ticket this November in Barack Obama, who polls surprisingly well against McCain here, and Rick Noriega, our nominee for the Senate race, who is a veteran of the war in Afghanistan and a Latino candidate in a state where Latinos are a significant and growing part of the voting population. And Texas Dems are better organized at the grassroots level than they have been in a long time.
Given all this, you'd think that the national Dems would make it a high priority to give Rick Noriega the financial support he needs to run a competitive race against a well-funded opponent. You'd think that, but according to Chuck Schumer, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Senate race in Texas is only a fourth-tier race:
Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC is challenging in 17 of 23 GOP-held seats, including eight he believes Democrats have a solid chance in and nine others where he thinks they can be competitive.
[...] Here’s the picture for the DSCC provided by Schumer:
Top targets: VA, NH, NM, CO, AK. (Schumer says they are ahead here.)
Second tier: OR, MN, ME. (These are blue states; Democrats are not ahead, but are competitive.)
Red-state seats in striking range: KY, NC, MS.
Good candidates with an outside chance: NE, KS, OK, GA, ID, TX. (Schumer says of Texas that he likes Noriega as a candidate and that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is polling surprisingly low.)
Schumer said that in early 2007 he would have identified six seats he would be worried about: AR, IA, SD, MT, WV and LA. But he expressed confidence in Sen. Mary Landrieu.
I don't know whether this means that they'll be directing fewer funds and support to Noriega's campaign than the higher-tier races, but if that's the case they're making a huge mistake in my opinion. RIck Noriega is a strong candidate who is lacking name recognition, and he needs financial support in order to achieve that name recognition and frame himself politically before the Republicans do it for him. But Schumer, who is a Hillary Clinton supporter, apparently shares her tone-deaf political philosophy that there are states that matter and states that don't. It would be a damn shame if we lost a race that we have a chance of winning because of some tool in New York.
On the bright side, Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has identified at least two congressional races in Texas as "front-line" contests: the 22nd district race for Tom Delay's old seat, currently held by Democrat Nick Lampson, and the 23rd district in West Texas, where Democrat Ciro Rodriguez looks to hold onto the seat that he took from Henry Bonilla in 2006. Overall, Van Hollen said that there are about 45-50 Republican seats in play, and about another 25-30 that Dems will have to defend against serious challenges.
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(via Burnt Orange Report)








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