The Old Eighteen

More about last night's votes

A few observations about last night's votes in Kentucky and Oregon:

• Nearly a third of the people who voted in Kentucky said that if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, they will vote for McCain, and another 15% said that they won't vote at all.  The big question: how many of these people are Limbaugh Democrats?  20 percent of those who voted self-identified as conservative, and Hillary Clinton took 73% of those voters.
• 21% of Kentucky voters cited race as a factor in their vote, including 7% who cited it as the most important factor.  Of these people, Hillary took a whopping 81%.  Furthermore, 18% of voters overall were white voters citing race as a factor, and Hillary took 88% of these voters.  (An interesting side note: 9% of white people who cited race as a factor voted for Obama.)
• Rural voters carried the day for Hillary in Kentucky: 56% of the electorate was from rural areas, and Hillary caried this demograpic with 77% of the vote.  This probably has something to do with race being such a huge factor in the vote.
• John McCain took only 72% of the vote in Kentucky, with 8% voting for Mike Huckabee, 7% voting for Ron Paul, and 5% for uncommitted.  Yes, that's right, 5% of Republican voters didn't want to vote for either of the two guys who dropped out of the race weeks ago, but still couldn't bring themselves to vote for the presumptive nominee.  It wasn't as bad for McCain in Oregon, but Paul still managed to get 15% of the vote there.
• Despite supporting Obama by a double-digit margin, 62% of Oregon voters want the campaign to continue.  This obviously doesn't jibe with the vast majority of Obama supporters in the blogosphere who want this damn thing to end already (including myself).  Why the contrast?  I suspect that a lot of non-blogger people want the campaign to continue because they find the race entertaining, and there are also probably quite a few who think that a nomination battle that includes all 50 states is a good thing for democracy.  I would tend to agree on both points, as I assume most bloggers would, but where we differ is that we view the nomination battle from the vantage point of people who are more likely to be party activists: we see the long battle as a drain of resources that could be better used against the Republicans, and a potential threat to party unity.  We may be right on the second point, but there's an argument to be made that the nomination battle has been one long, running infomercial for the Democratic party.  Working from that viewpoint, it hasn't been a waste of resources because it has increased the party's visibility and promotion of its core message among people who aren't otherwise politically engaged, and could net us a significant number of votes this November.

Obama delegate watch

With the Kentucky and Oregon primaries behind us, Barack Obama has made a significant dent in his magic number and clinched a majority of the pledged delegates.  In addition to his pledged delegate pickups last night, Obama also picked up two superdelegate endorsements, yesterday.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
64 delegates needed to secure nomination
309 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 214 superdelegates, 9 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 20.7% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida:
169 delegates needed to secure nomination
405 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 244 superdelegates, 20 Edwards delegates, 55 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 41.7% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

The next big delegate event will be the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting on May 31.  At this point, it looks like the most likely outcome is that the Michigan delegation will be seated in full and split 69-59, and that Florida will be penalized half of its pledged delegates, which would result in a pledged delegate count of 52 1/2 for Hillary, 34 1/2 for Obama, and 5 1/2 uncommitted Edwards delegates.  If this happens, the majority needed for securing the nomination will be set at 2162 1/2, and Obama's magic number will be reduced from 169 to 98.

If Obama wins just 40% of the pledged delegates in Puerto Rico on June 1 and a simple majority of the pledged delegates in Montana and South Dakota two days later, he will garner 38 delegates in these primaries.  That's a relatively pessimistic estimate of Obama's performance in these contests, but it would mean that he would only need 60, or 23.2%, of the remaining 258.5 superdelegates and undecided Edwards delegates to secure the nomination.  Under this scenario, if Obama averages 4 superdelegate endorsements a day, he will clinch the nomination on June 4.

Obama wins big in Oregon

In Oregon, with 50% of the precincts currently reporting, Barack Obama is leading 58%-42%.  The exit polls show him winning by a slightly lower margin, about 56%-42%, but that's still a substantial win - not as big as Hillary's in Kentucky, but enough to at least soothe some of the sting.  Oh, and by the way, Ron Paul is taking 14% of the Republican vote in Oregon.  McCain could have a big problem on his hands dealing with the Paulites at the Republican convention - should be fun to watch.

In Kentucky, the counting is complete, and Hillary won big, 65% to Obama's 30%.  Hillary takes 37 Kentucky delegates to Obama's 14, for a 23 delegate net gain.  Obama will walk away from Oregon with about 30 delegates, give or take a few.  he has now clinched a majority of the pledged delegates not counting Florida and Michigan, and according to Democratic Convention Watch he also has the pledged delegate majority under 4 of the 5 possible scenarios in which the Florida and Michigan delegations might (or might not) be seated:

Option 1: No FL & MI: Pledged Delegate Majority (PDM) Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 2: Seat MI as 69-59. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 3: Seat FL with 1/2 votes (supers get full vote). No Michigan delegates. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 4: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. Not clinched tonight.

After tonight, all eyes will be focused on the upcoming DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting, which will take place before the last round of primaries and will determine the status of the Florida and Michigan delegations, as well as superdelegate nominations, which might render the RBC decision moot.

Kentucky numbers

It's still early, but it looks like Hillary Clinton is going to have a big win in Kentucky.  The networks have already called the state for her, and the early exit polls suggest that she will win by well over 30 points, 65%-29%.  This will be the last big win that Hillary gets, so I hope she enjoys it, and uses the opportunity to drop out of the race on a high note.  Don't see that happening, but we can always hope, can't we?  Oregon polls will close much later this evening, and Obama is expected to get a nice win there, so at least the evening will end on a positive note for Obama Nation.

Obama delegate watch

Barack Obama picked up five more superdelegates yesterday, bringing his magic number down to 110 (215 if Florida and Michigan are counted).  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
110 delegates needed to secure nomination
415 delegates remaining (189 pledged, 217 superdelegates, 9 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 26.5% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida:
215 delegates needed to secure nomination
511 delegates remaining (189 pledged, 247 superdelegates, 20 Edwards delegates, 55 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 42.1% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

The Kentucky and Oregon primaries will be held tonight, allocating 103 pledged delegates, or just under 55% of the remaining 189 pledged delegates.  The polls in Kentucky show Hillary Clinton getting a sizeable win there, though how sizeable remains to be seen.  I believe that this is another state where John Edwards is still on the ballot, and in last week's West Virginia primary, he took a surprisingly large chunk of the vote, something like 5 or 6 percent.  My prediction is that Hillary will win with about 62 percent of the vote to Obama's 33, and the delegate split will be approximately 33-18.

In Oregon, the polls consistently show Obama with a lead, but they're all over the place as far as how big that lead is, ranging from 4 to 19 points.  Most of the polls show Obama with a double-digit lead, so it seems to be a pretty safe bet that his win here will be substantial, though far less so than Hillary's win in Kentucky.  My prediction for Obama is a 56%-42% win, with a delegate split of approximately 30-22.  So for the night, Hillary will win more delegates, 55-48.  This will leave Obama with a lead in pledged delegates of about 163 or so, which will clinch him the majority in pledged delegates not counting Florida and Michigan.  His pledged delegate lead counting Florida and Michigan will be about 54 pending the outcome of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, meaning that Hillary would need to take nearly two-thirds of the remaining pledged delegates just to match Obama's pledged delegate total.

There has been speculation that Barack Obama will declare victory or something similar tomorrow night.  Whether he does or not, I expect the pace of superdelegate endorsements to pick up considerably after tomorrow, more so if he actually does claim victory.  He would certainly have a strong case for doing so - in addition to his insurmountable pledged delegate lead, he will be only about 62 delegates away from clinching the nomination pending any superdelegate endorsements tomorrow, meaning that Hillary would need to take over 80% of all remaining delegates to catch up.  It's almost over!