If you're looking for a sign that Democratic prospects in Texas are looking up, look no forther than the 10th Congressional District, where a recent IVR poll is showing Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty within striking distance of Republican incumbent Michael McCaul in a district that went heavily for Bush in 2004:
In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas' 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. [...]
For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty's 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.
IVR also polled for both the presidential and senatorial elections in this district, and while both Dems are behind, the numbers show growth in a heavily Republican district: Cornyn leads Noriega by only 10 points, 54%-44%, and McCain leads Obama 55%-41%. And if Obama and Noriega increase turnout among African-American, Latino, and young voters, the numbers get better for all three candidates:
Historically, turnout in this district doesn't include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton's popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.
There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.
Without knowing the demographics in this congressional district, it would be presumptious to see it as a microcosm of the state. But if we're doing better in a red district like this one, it stands to reason that our prospects are looking up elswhere in the state as well. The political environment is certainly favorable: this fall the GOP isn't going to have a Texan in the top slot on its presidential line on the ballot, and they probably won't have a Texan as McCain's running mate either. Meanwhile, we're going to have two strong statewide candidates who will probably increase minority turnout, and Obama's presence on the ballot will also energize younger voters, who are trending Democratic. The competitive primary in the state this election cycle, along with Howard Dean's 50-state strategy, has improved Democratic organization in the state, and our candidates are going to be buoyed even further by the Obama fundraising juggernaut and a new model for tapping into the grassroots for financial support. People are wildly unhappy with their governent and with the Republican party, and Republicans are beginning to show signs of factional infighting at both the state and national level.
The polling for Obama and Noriega may not look great at this point, but it's better than it probably should be in a red state like Texas. Once Obama begins consolidating his leadership and making progress on unifying the party, his numbers will improve. And as Noriega becomes a better-known commodity with Texas voters, his numbers will get better too. Have faith, Texas Democrats, our long journey in the wilderness may be coming to an end!
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