The Old Eighteen

Obama delegate watch - UPDATED

The DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee meeting is finally over, and we now have resolution on the Florida and Michigan delegations.  Per the committee, all pledged delegates and superdelegates will be seated for both delegations, but they will be penalized a half a vote each.  In Florida, the delegation will be seated in accordance with the January vote.  In MIchigan, the committee approved a compromise that awards 69 delegates (34 1/2 votes) to Hillary Clinton, and 59 delegates (29 1/2 votes) to Barack Obama.  Hillary Clinton also got the endorsement of a superdelegate earlier today.

The big question now is whether Hillary will press on to the convention and challenge the Michigan compromise.  At the meeting today, Harold Ickes threw a temper tantrum over the allocation of Michigan delegates and made a cryptic remark that Hillary "reserves the right" to continue crying all the way to Denver.  It won't matter much - Obama now needs only 64 delegates, and he'll get about 40 of those in the remaining primaries.  Plus, he's supposedly got about three dozen superdelegates waiting in the wings to endorse after the primaries are over.  Even if he doesn't, this ruling and the end of the primaries will open the flood gates.  By Thursday at the latest, Barack Obama's status as the presumptive nominee will be beyond doubt.

With Florida and Michigan now resolved, here's a look at where the race now stands:

64 delegates needed to secure nomination
303.5 delegates remaining (86 pledged delegates, 205 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 21.1% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Obama delegate watch

No change in the numbers from yesterday, but today is the big day that everyone's been waiting for - the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee Meeting takes place today at 8:30 Dallas time.  The next few days will be momentous, as the RBC meeting today is followed up by the Puerto Rico primary tomorrow, then Montana and South Dakota vote on Tuesday.  And between now and the end of next week, there's probably going to be a stampede of the remaining superdelegates making their preferences known.  At least about 40 of them are said to be Obama supporters who will endorse on the two days following the 6/3 primaries.  It's not much of a stretch to think that there are probably at least 50 or so others out of the remaining superdelegates who will also endorse Obama, and they really won't have a legitimate excuse to wait around anymore.  By next Saturday, this whole thing should be all over but the crying, and Hillary will look really stupid and petty if she continues talking at that point about taking her fight all the way to the convention.

Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
41 delegates needed to secure nomination
284 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 191 superdelegates, 7 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 14.4% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI penalized 1/2 of delegates):
82.5 delegates needed to secure nomination
321 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 206 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates, 16.5 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 25.7% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI seated in full):
124 delegates needed to secure nomination
358 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 221 superdelegates, 18 Edwards delegates, 33 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 34.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Obama delegate watch

Barack Obama picked up the endorsements of four more superdelegates yesterday, including two from Texas - Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richey, and his wife, DNC member Betty Richie.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
41 delegates needed to secure nomination
284 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 191 superdelegates, 7 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 14.4% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI penalized 1/2 of delegates):
82.5 delegates needed to secure nomination
321 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 206 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates, 16.5 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 25.7% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI seated in full):
124 delegates needed to secure nomination
358 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 221 superdelegates, 18 Edwards delegates, 33 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 34.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Michigan Democratic leaders are asking the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee to accept a compromise solution they are proposing that would see the full Michigan delegation seated, with the delegate allocation split between the competing positions of both campaigns.  Hillary Clinton's campaign asserts that the delegates should be split 73-55 in accordance with the January vote, while Obama's campaign has proposed a 64-64 split - the compromise would see the delegation split 69-59.  However, the RBC has already been advised that Michigan, along with Florida, must be penalized at least half of its delegates.  What the committee will do remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them split the difference after penalizing Michigan of half its delegates.

Meanwhile, new polls are out in Puerto Rico and Montana for the upcoming primaries at the beginning of next week.  In Puerto Rico, polling shows Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead of 59%-40%.  It's only one poll, so unless it is corroborated by a few more polls between now and the election, take it with a grain of salt.  Likewise with the poll in Montana, which shows Obama with a 52%-35% lead over Hillary.  There are no new polls in South Dakota, but I imagine that the numbers for Obama will be similar there.  If so, and if these numbers are an accurate reflection of what the poll results end up being, Obama will pick up about 40 delegates on 6/1 and 6/3 combined. 

Obama delegate watch

Yesterday Barack Obama made a net gain of one delegate in the updated delegate count, picking up superdelegate endorsements in Guam and Wyoming, but losing a superdelegate from the Virgin Islands who switched his endorsement to Clinton.  Meanwhile, the bloggers at Democratic Convention Watch are attempting to determine the status of the "Michigan 36," the 36 uncommitted Michigan delegates who were allocated in April at district-level conventions.  With help from their readers, they have confirmed that at least 18 of the 36 delegates are supporting Obama, and have moved those delegates into his column - this is reflected in the numbers below.  As many as 12 others are believed to also be Obama delegates, but their status hasn't been confirmed with a good source so they continue to be counted as uncommitted delegates in DCW's numbers.

Speaking of Michigan (and Florida), the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee looms on Saturday, and will apparently be televised, for those of you with the stomach to watch it.  DNC lawyers issued a memo yesterday stating that the RBC has the authority to restore some delegates for Florida and Michigan, but is limited to restoring no more than half of the delegates per party rules.  Whether the RBC is bound to follow what the lawyers are telling them is unclear, but if nothing else I'm sure that the committee will be influenced by what the lawyers are saying.  With that in mind, I've decided to include a delegate count in which the Florida and Michigan delegations are counted, but reduced by half - in my opinion, this now seems to be the most likely outcome of the committee meeting.  Per DCW, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
48 delegates needed to secure nomination
292 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 199 superdelegates, 7 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 16.4% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI penalized 1/2 of delegates):
91.5 delegates needed to secure nomination
331 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 214 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates, 18.5 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 27.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI seated in full):
135 delegates needed to secure nomination
370 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 229 superdelegates, 18 Edwards delegates, 37 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 36.5% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Finally, Edwards endorses Obama

It took a long time coming, but that made it all the sweeter when it finally happened: John Edwards has endorsed Barack Obama for president:

“The reason I am here tonight is because the Democratic voters of America have made their choice and so have I,” Mr Edwards said.

Mr. Edwards then went on to say, “There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to tear down that wall and make one America, Barack Obama.”

Unfortunately, the Edwards endorsement isn't a package deal:

The Edwards endorsement, though, is singular. Elizabeth Edwards is not scheduled to add her voice to the growing Democratic chorus rallying behind Mr. Obama’s campaign.

Publicly, Mrs. Edwards has said that she favors Mrs. Clinton’s health care plan. Privately, she has told several associates she is unsure if Mr. Obama is the party’s best candidate.

But having John Edwards' endorsement, late though it may be, still helps Obama immensely.  It underlines his status as the presumptive nominee, and may give him a much-needed boost with working class white voters heading into Kentucky's primary next Tuesday, where polls show him losing badly to Clinton much as he did in West Virginia.

So why the wait?  Reportedly, despite the fact that he liked and respected Obama, Edwards had reservations about Obama's lack of experience and questioned whether or not he was ready to be president.  But he may have also been hedging his bets in order not to alienate Hillary Clinton in case she ended up winning the nomination.  Edwards has publicly denied having any interest in being vice-president or a member of either candidate's hypothetical cabinet, but that's not what he's been saying privately:

But privately, he told aides that he would consider the role of vice president, and favored the position of attorney general, which would appeal to his experience of decades spent in courtrooms as a trial lawyer in North Carolina; and his desire to follow in the footsteps of Robert F. Kennedy, one of his heroes.

John Edwards was a great presidential candidate who had the misfortune of running against two well-funded political titans.  He would have been my second choice if Obama had left the race, and almost became my first choice on a few occasions.  I'd love to see him as Obama's running mate, because I think they complement each other so well, but unfortunately I think that Obama's going to need to pick someone who can help him unify the party - probably a woman, and possibly a Clinton loyalist.  But the role of attorney general is one that Edwards may be even better suited for, and he'd certainly be the best attorney general we've had in this country for decades.

Edwards' endorsement doesn't end this race, but it's one more piece of a puzzle that has almost been put together.  The big question in my mind is whether this opens the floodgates for a surge of superdelegate endorsements over the next few days.  They've been coming in pretty steadily over the last couple of weeks, but now perhaps the pace will begin to pick up a bit.  The sooner, the better.

 

Uncommitted Michigan Democrats push for compromise solution to seat the state's delegates

A group of four Michigan Democrats who are uncommitted state delegates, including Debbie Dingell and Senator Carl Levin, is suggesting a compromise solution to the impasse over seating the state's delegates:

Recently, our District conventions began the process of selecting our 128 pledged delegates based on the results of the January 15 primary, with Senator Clinton receiving 73 pledged delegates and “Uncommitted” receiving 55 pledged delegates. We understand that almost all of the Uncommitted delegates selected to date are in fact pledged to Senator Obama.

The Clinton campaign has taken the position that the results of the January 15 primary should be honored and that Senator Clinton should receive 73 pledged delegates in accordance with the vote she received. The Obama campaign has taken the position that the January 15 primary results should be ignored and that the 128 pledged delegates should be seated but evenly divided between the two candidates.

Both candidates have a basis for their argument. The January 15 primary result was flawed because Senator Obama’s name was not on the ballot. He took his name off the ballot, interpreting the DNC injunction and the New Hampshire pledge against campaigning in Michigan to require him to take that affirmative step. As a result, we cannot totally agree with the Clinton campaign’s position that the outcome of the primary should be honored and that the pledged delegates should be apportioned 73/55 (Clinton/Obama).

At the same time, we also cannot accept the position of the Obama campaign that the primary should be totally ignored and the pledged delegates should be evenly apportioned 64/64 between the two candidates, given the fact that almost 600,000 Democrats voted in the January 15 primary, 55% of whom voted for Senator Clinton and 45% of whom voted for Uncommitted or other candidates.

In recent weeks we contacted both campaign organizations to see if we could negotiate a compromise that would be acceptable to both candidates. While we have not yet been able to achieve that goal, we cannot allow this deadlock to continue with its negative impact on the ability of our nominee to carry Michigan in November, and indeed to win the election.

As a result, we recommend that the Michigan Democratic Party request the DNC to seat Michigan’s delegates, and that the pledged delegates be apportioned 69 to Senator Clinton and 59 to Senator Obama. That approach splits the difference between the 73/55 position of the Clinton campaign and the 64/64 position of the Obama campaign, based on our belief that both sides have fair arguments about the Michigan primary. While we expect that neither candidate will explicitly embrace this approach, we believe that the DNC should adopt it and both candidates should accept it because it is fair and because it would resolve an impasse that with each passing day hurts our chances of carrying Michigan and winning the Presidency.

If a revote were help in Michigan, it would be highly likely that Obama would at least earn a split with Clinton, if not a majority of the delegates.  But at this point, Obama should take what he can get, and signing on to this compromise proposal would no doubt earn him some good will with the voters of Michigan.  DNC member Joel Ferguson, who has filed a formal challenge over the status of the Michigan delegation, has made his own proposal that all superdelegates and half the pledged delegates be seated, which would give Hillary a net gain of 9 pledged delegates.  Under this compromise solution, she would actually have a net gain of 10.  Neither one of these solutions is particularly advantageous to Obama, but they're both better than the alternatives would be: seating the full delegation would mean a net loss for Obama of 18 pledged delegates, and not seating the delegation at all would probably cost the party Michigan's electoral votes this November.  And if Michigan and Florida aren't setled prior to the convention, Hillary will take her fight all the way to the convention floor.

Obama should sign on to this compromise, and seek a similar solution to the problem with Florida's delegation.  Doing so will make it a lot easier for us to wrap up the nomination battle prior to August, which is a crucial prerequisite for us to win back the White House this November.

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(via The Page)

DNC to hear Florida, Michigan appeals on May 31

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has set a date of May 31 to hear separate challenges from Florida and Michigan Democrats, appealing the decision to strip these states of their delegates.  The appeals were made by Michigan DNC member Joel Ferguson, a Hillary Clinton superdelegate, and Jon Ausman, another DNC member and superdelegate who hasn't announced which candidate he supports but is believed to also be in the Clinton camp.  They are asking that all of the superdelegates and at least half of the pledged delegates for Florida and Michigan be seated for the convention, arguing that the DNC rules, per their interpretation, prohibit stripping a state of its superdelegates or reducing its pledged delegates by more than 50 percent.

If these challenges are successful, how would this affect the delegate count?  If both states receive half of their pledged delegates, Hillary would garner a net gain of only about 30 pledged delegates.  I reached this number based on the election results from both primaries, and also based on two assumptions: (1) all of the uncommitted delegates from Michigan were counted for Obama, and (2) the pledged delegates Edwards would have gotten from Florida were counted for Clinton and Obama based on their percentages of the popular vote.  However, it should be noted that Michigan held its district conventions Saturday, and Obama may have lost several delegates because of a lack of organization in the state.  In a worst-case scenario, if Clinton ends up getting 2/3 of Michigan's reduced pledged delegate number, her net gain in pledged delegates would be more like 36 delegates.

As far as superdelegates for both states are concerned, Clinton currently has 16 superdelegates to Obama's 4, for a further net gain of 12 delegates.  This leaves 31 superdelegates who have yet to endorse a candidate.  A realistic best-case scenario for Obama would be that they break roughly evenly for both candidates, resulting in a wash.  In a worst-case scenario, using the ratio of superdelegates who have already endorsed as a reference, Clinton would add to her net gain by 20 delegates.  So altogether, if Florida and Michigan are successful in their challenges, Clinton would have a minimum overall net gain of about 42 delegates, and a maximum of about 68.

According to Chuck Todd's tally, Obama currently enjoys a 134-delegate lead in the overall count, and a 157-delegate lead in the pledged delegate count.  Using the numbers above, in a best case scenario Obama's pledged delegate lead would be cut to 127 and his overall lead would be cut to 92.  In a worst-case scenario, his pledged delegate lead would be down to 121 and his overall lead would be cut to 66.  So if the Florida and Michigan challenges are successful, Obama faces the possibility of a substantial reduction in his delegate lead.  However, despite this, I think it would be wise for him to cut his losses and support the Florida and Michigan challenges.  This would undercut Hillary Clinton by taking away her main argument for continuing her campaign, and making it highly unlikely that she would be willing or able to initiate a floor fight at the convention.  Using the numbers above, in order for Hillary to eliminate Obama's pledged delegate lead, she would need to take a minimum of 65% of the remaining pledged delegates, which isn't going to happen.  And while it is possible that superdelegates would ignore the pledged delegate count and throw the nomination to Hillary, I strongly suspect that most of them understand what a disastrous effect this would have on the morale of the Democratic base going into the general election.

If Obama supports the Michigan and Florida challenges, he stands to make significant gains in his credibility with voters by doing something that goes against his own electoral interests.  And it would leave Hillary without a leg to stand on in defending herself, if she tries to continue her campaign past the beginning of June and into the convention.  It's risky, but I think it's his best option for wrapping up the nomination prior to August, unifying the party prior to the general election, and winning the electoral votes of two crucial swing states in November.

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(via The Page)

Revote in Michigan looking more likely

This is good news if they can pull it off.  In order to do so, they'll need to have the state party officials, both campaigns, the governor, and the state legislature on the same page.  If a revote takes place, it will have to be done no later than June 10 per DNC rules.  Right now polls are showing that the revote would essentially be a wash, although my hunch is that Obama would win the state.  But with the party going into the convention without a clear frontrunner in the overall delegate race, having the Michigan issue resolved would go a long way toward making a nasty floorfight less likely.  Something would still need to be done about Florida, though, and an agreement there doesn't appear to be forthcoming.