The Old Eighteen

Obama delegate watch

Hillary Clinton got what will probably be her last electoral win this primary season yesterday, handing Barack Obama a 68%-32% thrashing in Puerto Rico.  She walks away with 38 of the island's 55 electoral votes, but unfortunately for her, Obama gets the other 17, bringing him a lot closer to clinching the nomination.  Obama also picked up the endorsements of two more superdelegates yesterday, giving him an overall gain of 19 for the day.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

46 delegates needed to secure nomination
247.5 delegates remaining (31 pledged delegates, 203 superdelegates, 13.5 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 18.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

There's not a lot of polling for either Montana or South Dakota, but it looks like Obama will win both states.  If he gets a simple majority of the remaining 31 pledged delegates in these two states, he'll shave 16 off of his magic number, and he'll need only 30, or less than 15%, of the remaining 216 1/2 superdelegates/Edwards delegates.  Hillary's only hope, short of Obama being caught in bed between now and August with a dead woman or live boy, is for a groundswell of outrage to emerge over the whopping two pledged delegates that she lost as part of the ruling to seat Michigan, where Obama wasn't on the ballot at all and would likely have beaten Hillary if he had been.  In other words, Hillary has no hope whatsoever.  Because while there may be superdelegates remaining who are that gullible, there aren't two hundred of them, and that's how many she would need to pull off a win now.  From this point forward, anyone nominally giving their support to Hillary Clinton is really giving their support to John McCain, because every day that she clings on to the irrational belief that she can still somehow win is another day closer to the convention that hasn't been spent unifying the party.

"Mensaje a Puerto Rico"

Here's a campaign ad, in Spanish, that the Obama campaign is airing in Puerto Rico.  That loud sound you heard is Tom Tancredo's head popping:

Obama delegate watch

Barack Obama picked up the endorsements of four more superdelegates yesterday, including two from Texas - Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richey, and his wife, DNC member Betty Richie.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
41 delegates needed to secure nomination
284 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 191 superdelegates, 7 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 14.4% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI penalized 1/2 of delegates):
82.5 delegates needed to secure nomination
321 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 206 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates, 16.5 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 25.7% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI seated in full):
124 delegates needed to secure nomination
358 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 221 superdelegates, 18 Edwards delegates, 33 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 34.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Michigan Democratic leaders are asking the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee to accept a compromise solution they are proposing that would see the full Michigan delegation seated, with the delegate allocation split between the competing positions of both campaigns.  Hillary Clinton's campaign asserts that the delegates should be split 73-55 in accordance with the January vote, while Obama's campaign has proposed a 64-64 split - the compromise would see the delegation split 69-59.  However, the RBC has already been advised that Michigan, along with Florida, must be penalized at least half of its delegates.  What the committee will do remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them split the difference after penalizing Michigan of half its delegates.

Meanwhile, new polls are out in Puerto Rico and Montana for the upcoming primaries at the beginning of next week.  In Puerto Rico, polling shows Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead of 59%-40%.  It's only one poll, so unless it is corroborated by a few more polls between now and the election, take it with a grain of salt.  Likewise with the poll in Montana, which shows Obama with a 52%-35% lead over Hillary.  There are no new polls in South Dakota, but I imagine that the numbers for Obama will be similar there.  If so, and if these numbers are an accurate reflection of what the poll results end up being, Obama will pick up about 40 delegates on 6/1 and 6/3 combined.