The Old Eighteen

Obama delegate watch

Barack Obama got a total of seven superdelegate endorsements yesterday to Hillary Clinton's two, but three of those superdelegates were from Michigan and Florida, which means that they only get half a vote each - thus Obama reduces his magic number by 5 1/2.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race currently stands:

39.5 delegates needed to secure nomination
239 delegates remaining (31 pledged delegates, 195.5 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 16.5% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Tonight, the last two primaries will be held in Montana and South Dakota.  ARG has released polls for both states - they are showing Montana surprisingly close at 48%-44% for Obama, and their South Dakota poll actually shows Clinton with a substantial 60%-34% lead.  However, ARG has a history of producing inaccurate, and sometimes wildly inaccurate, poll numbers.  And their crosstabs in South Dakota show Clinton leading Obama among voters aged 18-49 by a highly questionable 57%-38%.  So, um...no.  Poblano is projecting that Obama will win Montana by 18 and South Dakota by 5, and he's been a lot more reliable than ARG has, so I'm going with what he predicts.

Obama is widely expected to win at least 16 of the 31 pledged delegates being contested tonight, which would shave his magic number down to 23 1/2.  In that case, he would need less than 10% of the remaining superdelegates.  A lot of speculation has centered on the question of whether Obama will get a "deluge" of superdelegate endorsements tomorrow, reducing his magic number enough for Montana and South Dakota to push him over the threshold of victory so he can declare himself the winner tomorrow night without jumping the gun by a day or two.  CNN is reporting that "most" of the 17 Democratic senators who still haven't committed to a candidate yet will be endorsing Obama "this week," sometime after the primaries conclude.  If true, that gives Obama at least 9 more superdelegates, who could endorse as soon as Tuesday night, but might wait until later.  Chuck Todd at MSNBC is reporting that in the House, there are at least 34 uncommitted superdelegates who will endorse Obama by Wednesday, and as many as 18 of them will endorse tomorrow.  Jim Clyburn of South Carolina is confirmed to be one of those superdelegates.

Will any of this come to fruition?  And if so, will Hillary accept defeat gracefully or continue on with a destructive determination to take her fight to the convention?  Well, Harold Ickes is now saying that a credentials challenge by Clinton is not likely.  Hillary's campaign co-chair, Tom Vilsack, is saying that she should "acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."  And even her own husband is telling people that "[t]his may be the last day I'm ever involved in a campaign of this kind."  To me, it sounds like they know that the deluge of superdelegates is coming, if not tomorrow, at the latest within the next few days, and that Hillary has wisely concluded that a push to the convention would be a bad idea.  Obama will no doubt be graceful in acknowledging his victory tonight, and hopefully Hillary will be equally graceful and unambiguous tonight in acknowledging her defeat.  By this time tomorrow, we'll have an uncontested nominee for the presidency, and we can begin the process of unifying the party.

Obama delegate watch

Hillary Clinton got what will probably be her last electoral win this primary season yesterday, handing Barack Obama a 68%-32% thrashing in Puerto Rico.  She walks away with 38 of the island's 55 electoral votes, but unfortunately for her, Obama gets the other 17, bringing him a lot closer to clinching the nomination.  Obama also picked up the endorsements of two more superdelegates yesterday, giving him an overall gain of 19 for the day.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

46 delegates needed to secure nomination
247.5 delegates remaining (31 pledged delegates, 203 superdelegates, 13.5 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 18.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

There's not a lot of polling for either Montana or South Dakota, but it looks like Obama will win both states.  If he gets a simple majority of the remaining 31 pledged delegates in these two states, he'll shave 16 off of his magic number, and he'll need only 30, or less than 15%, of the remaining 216 1/2 superdelegates/Edwards delegates.  Hillary's only hope, short of Obama being caught in bed between now and August with a dead woman or live boy, is for a groundswell of outrage to emerge over the whopping two pledged delegates that she lost as part of the ruling to seat Michigan, where Obama wasn't on the ballot at all and would likely have beaten Hillary if he had been.  In other words, Hillary has no hope whatsoever.  Because while there may be superdelegates remaining who are that gullible, there aren't two hundred of them, and that's how many she would need to pull off a win now.  From this point forward, anyone nominally giving their support to Hillary Clinton is really giving their support to John McCain, because every day that she clings on to the irrational belief that she can still somehow win is another day closer to the convention that hasn't been spent unifying the party.

Obama delegate watch

Barack Obama picked up the endorsements of four more superdelegates yesterday, including two from Texas - Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richey, and his wife, DNC member Betty Richie.  Per Democratic Convention Watch, here's a look at where the race now stands:

Without Michigan and Florida:
41 delegates needed to secure nomination
284 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 191 superdelegates, 7 Edwards delegates)
Barack Obama needs to take 14.4% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI penalized 1/2 of delegates):
82.5 delegates needed to secure nomination
321 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 206 superdelegates, 12.5 Edwards delegates, 16.5 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 25.7% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

With Michigan and Florida (FL & MI seated in full):
124 delegates needed to secure nomination
358 delegates remaining (86 pledged, 221 superdelegates, 18 Edwards delegates, 33 uncommitted)
Barack Obama needs to take 34.6% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination

Michigan Democratic leaders are asking the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee to accept a compromise solution they are proposing that would see the full Michigan delegation seated, with the delegate allocation split between the competing positions of both campaigns.  Hillary Clinton's campaign asserts that the delegates should be split 73-55 in accordance with the January vote, while Obama's campaign has proposed a 64-64 split - the compromise would see the delegation split 69-59.  However, the RBC has already been advised that Michigan, along with Florida, must be penalized at least half of its delegates.  What the committee will do remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them split the difference after penalizing Michigan of half its delegates.

Meanwhile, new polls are out in Puerto Rico and Montana for the upcoming primaries at the beginning of next week.  In Puerto Rico, polling shows Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead of 59%-40%.  It's only one poll, so unless it is corroborated by a few more polls between now and the election, take it with a grain of salt.  Likewise with the poll in Montana, which shows Obama with a 52%-35% lead over Hillary.  There are no new polls in South Dakota, but I imagine that the numbers for Obama will be similar there.  If so, and if these numbers are an accurate reflection of what the poll results end up being, Obama will pick up about 40 delegates on 6/1 and 6/3 combined.